How to Compare Daycare Availability in City Neighborhoods

A child care desert is an area where demand for child care exceeds the number of places available in state-licensed child care facilities. The Center for American Progress uses this definition, as reported by Sonoma News on 4 March 2021. The test compares local demand with licensed supply, so a neighborhood can be a desert even if it has some providers, when they cannot absorb the demand.

What is a child care desert?

Measuring a desert means comparing two numbers for the same area: the places licensed facilities offer and the number of children who need care. The Sonoma County figures reported by Sonoma News show how fast licensed supply can shrink:

The provider count fell by about 35%, but the places fell by 57%, so the remaining providers offered proportionally less capacity. Counting facilities alone therefore understates how much supply was lost.

Desert status within Santa Rosa

Desert status varies by neighborhood within the same city. Sonoma News reported the following for Santa Rosa:

How to Measure Child Care Supply by Neighborhood?

Apply that test to each neighborhood you compare.

Method:

1. Count licensed supply. Use your state’s public licensing records to list child care centers and family providers by address, then group them by neighborhood or ZIP code. Record licensed places where the data gives them, not only the number of facilities.
2. Estimate demand. Count the children who need care in each neighborhood using local population data. Compare this figure with licensed places, not with total population, since children outside the target age range do not create care demand.
3. Classify each area. Where demand exceeds places, the area is a desert. Where places exceed demand, supply is sufficient.
4. Repeat the count over time. Sonoma County shows why a single snapshot is not enough. Its licensed centers and family providers fell from 608 before the pandemic to 396 at the time of the Sonoma News report (2021-03-04), about 35% fewer, and places dropped 57%.

Santa Rosa, also in Sonoma County, shows how averages hide gaps. Compare neighborhoods separately rather than relying on a city-wide figure.

How do you compare neighborhoods within a city step by step?

Comparing neighborhoods needs the same two inputs for every area, licensed supply and local demand. The central measure is the child care desert, defined by the Center for American Progress as an area where demand exceeds the places available in state-licensed facilities. Sonoma News applied this definition to Sonoma County in March 2021. A neighborhood comparison therefore needs two inputs: licensed supply in each area, and demand in the same area.

To run the comparison yourself:

• Count licensed supply only. Include state-licensed child care centers and family providers. Exclude unlicensed care, since it is not part of the desert definition.
• Count places, not just facilities. The Sonoma figures track providers and places separately. Places show capacity more directly than provider counts.
• Set supply against demand. Compare places with the number of children who need care in the same area. A neighborhood with many providers can still be a desert if demand is higher.
• Classify each area. Label it as a desert or as having sufficient supply, then compare across neighborhoods.

Applied to Sonoma County, the report found 608 licensed child care centers and family providers before the pandemic and 396 at the time of the article, about 35% fewer, with places down 57%. Within Santa Rosa, the same report classified neighborhoods as follows:

Most of Santa Rosa was classified as a desert, with the three listed neighborhoods named explicitly. The sufficient-supply areas are the exceptions.

Why does daycare supply vary from one neighborhood to another?

Daycare supply is not spread evenly across a city.

The Sonoma County figures show how quickly supply can shift. Before the pandemic, the county had 608 licensed child care centers and family providers. At the time of the Sonoma News article, dated 2021-03-04, 396 remained, and the number of places had fallen 57%.

Supply also varies within a single city. In Santa Rosa, most of the city is classified as a desert, specifically Roseland, South Santa Rosa, and Coffey Park. Mark West, the Monroe District, and much of the east side were reported to have sufficient supply. A citywide average would hide this split, so neighborhood-level comparison is needed.

To check a neighborhood yourself:

• Pull the list of state-licensed providers for the city or county, then filter it by neighborhood or ZIP code.
• Count licensed places rather than facilities, since one center and one family provider can differ greatly in capacity.
• Compare that total with the number of young children living in the same area.
• Classify the neighborhood as a desert when available places are below local demand.

Income and childcare supply: is the link obvious?

The source documents supply gaps but gives no income figures, so it cannot confirm that lower-income neighborhoods have fewer daycare places. Whether those areas differ in household income is a separate question that the source does not answer.

Countywide, the source reports a sharp decline in supply: 608 licensed child care centers and family providers before the pandemic, 396 at the time of the article, and a 57% drop in places.

How to test the income link

Use public data to check the relationship yourself:

1. Map household income for each neighborhood using census-level income tables, aggregated to the same boundaries you use for supply.
2. Count licensed capacity per area: the number of licensed centers and family providers and their places, taken from the state licensing register.
3. Normalize by children, not total population. Divide licensed places by the number of young children in each area, so that large neighborhoods are not favored.
4. Compare the ratios across income bands to see whether low-coverage areas cluster in lower-income neighborhoods.
5. Check dataset dates. The source’s figures date from early 2021, so newer licensing counts are needed before drawing current conclusions.

Are the data still up to date?

No. Every figure in this section comes from a single article published by Sonoma News on 2021-03-04, which describes conditions at that date. The 2021 figures are the most recent in the source used here, and they describe conditions during the pandemic period. Treat them as a historical snapshot, not as current availability.

Those neighborhood classifications are also dated to 2021 and should be rechecked before use.

To update a comparison, use this method:

• Start from the licensed capacity count, not the number of providers. Licensed places are the figure that defines a child care desert, so a rise in provider count does not prove that capacity has returned.
• Pull the current licensing records from your state’s child care licensing agency, then sort them by ZIP code or neighborhood boundary.
• Compare current licensed places against the number of children under school age in each area. Census or other public population estimates can supply that denominator.
• Record the date of each data pull next to every figure, so readers can see how old the comparison is.

How to check an address before you move?

Check child care at the neighborhood level, not only at the city level.

Apply the same test to any address you are considering:

• Count licensed places, not informal care. The desert definition only covers state-licensed facilities, so unlicensed options do not change the classification.
• Compare supply with demand for the same area. A neighborhood counts as a desert when demand exceeds places, so a high number of providers alone does not settle the question.
• Check each neighborhood separately. In Santa Rosa, the gap is local:

• Check the date of the data. These figures describe conditions in early 2021. Confirm current counts with the licensing records for the area before you decide.