Average home prices can be compared across Canadian cities only when the figures use the same definition, property type, geographic boundary, and period. The most recent national benchmark is the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecast of a 2026 national average home price of $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025, rising to $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2% (CREA, 2026-10-16). These figures are national. The official sources consulted do not specify city-level prices or forecasts, so city comparisons require separate local data.
How to compare average home prices between Canadian cities
Start by checking the metric. An average is pulled up by a small number of high-value sales, while a median reflects the typical transaction. A city with several luxury sales can show an average well above its median, so confirm which measure a source publishes before ranking cities.
Next, match the property type. Detached houses, semi-detached homes, townhouses, and condominiums sit at very different price levels. Comparing one city’s average condo price with another city’s average detached house does not show which market is more expensive.
Then match the geographic boundary and the period. Municipal limits often differ from metropolitan area boundaries, and a figure labelled for a city may include surrounding suburbs. Use the same boundary and the same reference period for every city in the comparison.
Finally, use provincial forecasts as context rather than as city prices. CREA’s October 2026 outlook shows diverging trends by province:
| Province | Forecast change in 2026 (CREA, 2026-10-16) |
|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | up 5.7% |
| Saskatchewan | up 5% |
| British Columbia | down 0.8% |
| Ontario | down about 3% |
CREA also forecasts that other provinces will rise by low-to-mid single digits. The sources do not name those provinces individually, so they are not listed above. A provincial direction shows the broad trend, but it cannot tell you whether a specific city is cheaper or more expensive than its neighbours.
Average price or benchmark price: what’s the difference?
An average price is the arithmetic mean of the sale prices recorded in an area over a given period. It answers “what did homes sell for on average?”, but it moves with the mix of homes sold as well as with market prices. If more high-end properties sell in one month, the average rises even though no individual home gained value. This is the composition effect. A benchmark price tracks price changes for a fixed set of comparable homes, so it separates market movement from changes in what sold.
The distinction matters when comparing cities. Two figures both labelled “average price” can rest on different property types, periods or definitions, so ranking them directly can mislead.
CREA’s October 2026 forecast puts the 2026 national average home price at $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025, and the 2027 figure at $689,909, up 1.2% (Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), 2026-10-16). This is a national mean. It does not describe the price of any single city or province, and the forecasts diverge by province:
| Province | Forecast change for 2026 |
|---|---|
| Ontario | about -3% |
| British Columbia | -0.8% |
| Saskatchewan | +5% |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | +5.7% |
| Other provinces (not named individually) | low-to-mid single-digit increase |
The national figure hides these gaps. A rise in the national average can coexist with falling prices in the largest provinces, so a national number should not be used to judge a specific location. The official sources consulted do not specify city-level forecasts or prices.
Toronto and Vancouver: markets in retreat
Toronto is in Ontario and Vancouver is in British Columbia, and CREA forecasts declines in both provinces for 2026. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA, October 2026), Ontario’s average home price is forecast to fall by about 3% in 2026, and British Columbia’s by 0.8%. These are provincial figures. The official sources consulted do not specify city-level forecasts or prices for Toronto or Vancouver, so the provincial numbers cannot be read as a direct measure of either city.
| Province (CREA forecast, 2026 vs. 2025) | Forecast change |
|---|---|
| Ontario (includes Toronto) | About -3% |
| British Columbia (includes Vancouver) | -0.8% |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | +5.7% |
| Saskatchewan | +5% |
| Other provinces (not named individually) | Low-to-mid single-digit increases |
The national picture is close to flat. CREA’s October 2026 forecast puts the 2026 national average home price at $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025, and $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2%. The two declining provinces are offset by gains elsewhere, so the national average hides a wide spread between markets.
How to check city-level data
To compare Toronto and Vancouver with each other or with other cities, use figures published for the city itself rather than the province. Before comparing numbers, confirm three things:
- Measure: median or average price. These can differ substantially in markets with many high-value sales.
- Period: the months or year covered, and whether the figure is a forecast or a recorded result.
- Geography: the municipality, metropolitan area, or neighborhood the figure describes.
Montréal, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton : que disent les prévisions provinciales ?
The official sources consulted do not give average home prices for these four cities. CREA’s October 2026 forecast covers the national average and provinces only. It projects a 2026 national average of $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025, and $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2% (Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), October 2026). The gaps between these cities therefore cannot be quantified from this data.
Because these four cities sit in three provinces (Calgary and Edmonton are both in Alberta), the provincial forecasts give only a rough indication of direction:
| City | Province | CREA 2026 provincial forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | Ontario | Down about 3% |
| Montreal | Quebec | Low-to-mid single-digit rise (not named individually) |
| Calgary | Alberta | Low-to-mid single-digit rise (not named individually) |
| Edmonton | Alberta | Low-to-mid single-digit rise (not named individually) |
Quebec and Alberta are not named individually in CREA’s text, so their forecasts fall in the “other provinces” group. Treat them as approximate.
To compare the four cities directly, use city-level series rather than provincial forecasts. Check whether each series measures the same property type, such as detached homes, condominiums, or all residential sales, and whether it reports a median or an average. Mixing these measures can produce gaps that reflect the method, not the market.
Provinces where prices are rising the most
CREA’s October 2026 forecast shows a wide split between provinces. The national average home price is projected at $681,681 for 2026, up 0.2% on 2025, and $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2%. The national figure hides large provincial differences, so it is a weak guide for choosing where to buy.
Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan lead the 2026 forecasts, with rises of 5.7% and 5%. Ontario and British Columbia are the only provinces named with declines, at about -3% and -0.8%. The remaining provinces are expected to rise by low-to-mid single digits, but CREA does not name them individually.
| Province | Forecast price change, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | +5.7% |
| Saskatchewan | +5% |
| British Columbia | -0.8% |
| Ontario | about -3% |
The gap between the strongest and weakest named provinces is roughly 8.7 percentage points. These are provincial forecasts, not recorded sale prices, and they describe direction and magnitude rather than the price of a specific home.
Where to find reliable official data
Comparing average home prices across Canadian cities requires checking three things for each figure: who published it, when, and at what geographic level. A national average, a provincial forecast, and a city-level sale price answer different questions, and mixing them produces misleading rankings. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) publishes a national figure with provincial breakdowns, which shows the level of detail to expect from a major national source.
Check the geography first. Confirm that the source reports at city level before comparing two cities. The official sources consulted do not specify city-level forecasts or prices in CREA’s October 2026 outlook, so that outlook supports national and provincial comparisons only.
Separate forecasts from observed prices. CREA’s figures are projections, not recorded transactions. Label them as forecasts when you cite them.
| Indicator | Figure | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| National average home price, 2026 forecast | $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025 | CREA (2026-10-16) |
| National average home price, 2027 forecast | $689,909, up 1.2% | CREA (2026-10-16) |
| Ontario, 2026 forecast | Down about 3% | CREA (2026-10-16) |
| British Columbia, 2026 forecast | Down 0.8% | CREA (2026-10-16) |
| Newfoundland and Labrador, 2026 forecast | Up 5.7% | CREA (2026-10-16) |
| Saskatchewan, 2026 forecast | Up 5% | CREA (2026-10-16) |
CREA also forecasts that other provinces, which it does not name individually, will rise by low-to-mid single digits in 2026.
Record the date and the metric. Note whether each figure is an average, a median, or a forecast, and whether it is in Canadian dollars. Two figures labeled “average home price” can differ in scope, so compare only figures with the same definition, year, and geography.
Is price enough to choose where to live?
A single average home price rarely settles the question. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecast published in October 2026 puts the 2026 national average home price at $681,681, up 0.2% on 2025, and $689,909 in 2027, up 1.2%. These figures describe the country as a whole and blend very different local markets, so they say little about what a specific neighborhood or city will cost.
CREA expects the provincial divergence to be wide in 2026:
| Province | Forecast change in average home price, 2026 (CREA, October 2026) |
|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | up 5.7% |
| Saskatchewan | up 5% |
| British Columbia | down 0.8% |
| Ontario | down about 3% |
The other provinces are forecast to rise by low-to-mid single digits, though CREA does not name them individually. The official sources consulted do not give city-level forecasts or city-level prices, so a provincial forecast cannot be read as a city forecast.
The direction of change matters as much as the current level. Two places with similar average prices can follow opposite paths: one may be forecast to fall while another rises. For a buyer or renter planning a stay of several years, the trend is often more informative than a single snapshot.
Price also measures nothing about daily life. It does not show commuting time, climate, access to services, or whether the local population is growing or shrinking. A practical comparison works in three steps:
- Establish the local price level from recent transactions in the municipality, not from a national or provincial average.
- Check the direction of change against the provincial forecast for that region.
- Compare the non-price criteria (transport, services, climate, population trends) using the figures published by each city or the relevant statistics office.
Frequently asked questions
Can I rank Canadian cities by average home price using CREA’s national figure?
The national average of $681,681 forecast for 2026 covers the whole country, so it cannot rank individual cities. The official sources consulted do not specify city-level prices, so a city ranking needs local data that uses the same geographic boundary for every city.
Does a provincial forecast show what will happen in Calgary or Edmonton?
Calgary and Edmonton are both in Alberta, but CREA does not name Alberta in its 2026 forecast. Alberta falls in the group of other provinces expected to rise by low-to-mid single digits, which gives a rough direction for the province, not a price change for either city.
Why does an average home price differ so much from a typical price in the same city?
An average can rise sharply when a few high-value sales are included, so it may not match what a typical buyer pays. A median is less affected by those outliers, so check which measure a source publishes before comparing cities.
